Ready for a roof… almost

Rants aside, it is hard not to appreciate the arrival of sunny days and warm temps to lure us back outdoors. For Roni, it has meant returning to the yard to resume the never ending war on weeds that have been abundant with all the rain. Our backyard is a jungle, seed stalks peeking above the top of the back fence line. While the neighborhood cats appreciate the cover as they pass on through, it is just another time-consuming eyesore we’ll eventually have to tackle. 

Some yard work will definitely be in order as we prepare for the installation of a new roof and gutters, specifically pruning back bushes that have overgrown the edge of the shingles in some areas. For the first time since the house was built sometime around 1987, we have decided the time is finally right for a roofing job that should have been done perhaps five or 10 years ago — or so the lady from Lowe’s told us when we called to get a quote. 

As with all home improvement services, our jaws just about hit the floor when we were quoted more than $26,000 to cover 2,200 square feet of roofing and around 110 feet of aluminum gutters. But this is why you have to get quotes. The process has been an interesting one nevertheless. When we initially contacted Lowe’s, they set us up with a smartphone app we had to download that instructed us to take pictures of our property from multiple angles and upload them so the program could create a 3D rendering of the house using the GPS location of each shot as a point of reference. Truly amazing. 

Unlike the olden days when a roofing contractor came to the job site and had to climb around on the roof with a giant roll of measuring tape, all the necessary measurements are generated by the app so that our sales consultant working out of her office thousands of miles away could instantly quote us on the roofing job, the gutter work, or any of a number of other services for which precise measurements are required. Had we needed windows or a painting contractor, she could have quoted us on those jobs, too. 

Our appointment was by way of a video conference call on a Thursday afternoon. We sat together on the living room sofa while our consultant shared images of her screen with the 3D rendering of our house dressed up in various styles and colors of shingles. It was a little overwhelming because Lowe’s can work with a dozen manufacturers to give customers the color, style and durability they desire in a new roof. We have been partial lately to lighter colors that can better reflect the heat in the summer months, so our consultation included lots of examples with grays, whites and tans. We finally had to just pick something to avoid an endless carousel of colors. 

But in the end what mattered most was a price quote that came in far above our expectations. With inflation and the ever-present “supply chain problems” we hadn’t expected anything like pre-pandemic prices, but the number we wanted to hear was under 20 grand, and Lowe’s was nowhere close. So our next step was to get some other quotes.

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UR FIRST CALL was to V Mendoza Roofing, who we considered because they have reroofed most of the houses in our subdivision and customers gave positive reviews. They also did the house of our neighbors adjacent to our eastern property line about six years ago, and we got to watch them in action. With spring weather finally here we expected the demand for roofing work would be pretty high as folks like us had discovered leaks and such during the rains that they’d need repaired soon. But Valente Mendoza himself gave us an immediate response and came out on a Sunday morning to discuss the job.

Like Lowe’s, Mendoza already had all the information needed for our quote — no wrangling with ladders or equipment up on the roof. He had a few samples of products we could choose, and while nowhere near as extensive as Lowe’s with its endless color variations, we saw some we liked. The advantage of working directly with a local contractor who has been in business for 15 years is that he could explain the reasons behind the products he prefers to use. It comes down to the fact that his reputation is at stake, and he doesn’t want to use a product that requires return trips to a job site to fix problems. We felt reasonably confident with the options presented. 

Mendoza worked up his quote for the job and emailed it to us a couple of days later. It was below our budget and much more in line with what we expected, even after financing options which we will probably take advantage of. The only thing holding us back from signing the contract was that he wanted to start the job almost immediately. That really shocked us, but then he did mention that he thought he could fit us in between a bigger commercial job he’d been doing. The problem is that we had been looking toward June or July and really weren’t ready to dive in until we’d had time to prepare the property a bit — the aforementioned weeding, pruning and such. 

So as the month of April slips away, we have yet to nail down a date for the new roof, but we are just a phone call from getting the final details in line.

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OR GLENN AND Ben, spring’s return brought an opportunity for some hiking at Round Valley Regional Preserve southeast of Brentwood. It was Ben’s idea, actually, as he was feeling nostalgic for our previous visit there with his Uncle Sean two years ago. 

Our April 23 outing was quite a different experience than in 2021, when the world thought it was coming out of the COVID crisis and California was in the throes of drought. This time, the face masks were off, social distancing was out, and the creek beds were full with water. The one constant was that the weather was warm, which is not ideal for a 7-mile hike yet better than tromping through mud, as is possible on Round Valley’s dirt trails. 

Since Ben made the arrangements with Sean, he insisted on being the one to drive us to the preserve, seeing it as a challenge of his skills behind the wheel. It’s not that Ben hasn’t driven to Round Valley before on Contra Costa County’s winding backroads, but the pandemic has given few excuses for long trips, and Ben still doesn’t feel confident taking the freeway places, which is sort of essential if he wants to go anywhere beyond the daily commute to work two miles away. 

It was an uneventful trip to the preserve in the old Toyota, and we passed the time listening to Incubus and Metallica on his stereo while waiting for Sean to arrive from Hayward. The main parking lot was already full by the time we arrived at 10 a.m., so we found a spot in the overflow section with all the horse trailers — and it looked like a fair number were there that day. 

Once we made contact with Sean, we set out across Marsh Creek on the Miwok Trail, pausing long enough on the bridge to enjoy the water that wasn’t there the last time we visited. And it was deep, too, thanks to all the rain we’ve had. We continued on the familiar path into the foothills, joined by dozens of other hikers who had come out early on a nice day to take advantage of the cooler temperatures and look for wildflowers, presumably. 

And if it was flowers we wanted, we were not disappointed. There were fields filled with poppies, mustard, lupines and lilies. And then there were the little blue dicks — or at least that is what Sean decided they were — which amused us guys with their obvious humor. 

There were also cows in abundance. Round Valley doubles not only as a regional park, but also as grazing land for cattle ranchers, and there is infrastructure everywhere to remind visitors of such — from the huge cattle gates that must be closed behind one at various points, to the rusting vintage farm equipment scattered about the valley floor. The cows mostly share their space with the hikers and pass the time chewing on hillside grasses beneath the canopy of shade trees. 

The Miwok Trail meanders up and down moderate inclines for about 1.7 miles along Round Valley Creek before you are confronted with a major decision: stick with the flatlands or veer off onto the aptly named Hardy Creek Trail that tracks three miles of steep terrain as it loops you back around to the parking lot — where only the hardiest of hikers dares to tread. The decision was mostly made for us by a sign at the merge point warning that the Hardy trail was closed due to storm damage. Actually, there was a paper sign partially taped over it that also said the trail was closed. Neither was an encouraging sign, of our hope was to head uphill. 

But perhaps it was for the best, because none of us was feeling especially conditioned for a mountainous climb. Besides, we’d been on Hardy Creek Trail before, and while it can be beautiful once you descend into the wooded valley, you first have a climb up to 1,200 feet that is anything but easy on the body. We had never been to the opposite side of the park before, so we agreed that sticking to the Miwok Trail would be our best bet; everything eventually loops back to where it starts from.

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VERYTHING MAY LOOP back, yes, but some loops are longer than others. The Miwok Trail soon branched again, and we had to choose whether to stay on it or proceed onto the Murphy Meadow Trail. We didn’t have a trail map with us here, unfortunately, and Sean’s effort to find one online proved futile because there was no internet access in the valley where we were.

At this point we were being pursued by a group of horseback riders who had mostly been far behind us on our hike, yet now were catching up to us. Someone in their group had brought along a boom box that was broadcasting Mexican mariachi music throughout the park. While this helped conjure up images of what life on the ranches here might have been like in the 1850s, it did little to enhance the serenity of nature on a warm spring day.

“If we wanted that, we could have just stayed home,” Glenn said, referring to the many loud and obnoxious parties thrown by our nextdoor neighbors at the Loud House. 

So we took a chance and veered onto the Murphy Meadow Trail, feeling relieved when the passing posse turned the opposite direction. We could hear their music fading as our paths diverged, but for how long? 

While the horsemen of the apocalypse took the high road, we had chosen the low road through acres of flat grassland where not even the cattle wanted to graze for lack of shade. We’d all put on sunscreen, and good thing; the noontime rays were relentless. Our dirt path ran next to rutted meadow where water from the nearby creek now flowed through, effectively creating a muddy barrier between hikers and the farm field next to the trail. 

We’d been walking and baking for some time, stumbling over rocks and weeds and other obstacles on the trail, when we eventually encountered a young couple coming from the opposite direction. “Is there anything worth seeing up there?” Glenn asked them. They sort of looked at each other and shrugged. “Not really,” said the man. “It just loops around,” said the woman. “Loop! That was the word I needed to hear,” Glenn replied. At least now there was hope that we would eventually find the car again. 

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HINGS STARTED LOOKING up about a mile in, once the Murphy Meadow Trail hooked south over the creek and began to curve back toward the base of the hills. By now Sean had enough of a cell signal to download the trail map, so we at least knew where we were headed. We had literally been walking through Round Valley, or at least skirting its perimeter. Now it was time to rejoin the Miwok Trail and get the heck back to the car. 

What our chosen route spared us in elevation was made up for in distance, as we’d added perhaps more than a mile and a half onto our hike. We soon encountered a picnic area with a few dozen trees that created a shady oasis where cows had converged. They regarded us suspiciously as we passed them a couple of times until we rediscovered the trail and its junction with the Miwok Trail. 

Alas, the mariachi band rejoined us by the time we returned to the Miwok Trail’s junction point that closed our loop. While we had gone to the west side of the valley, they had stayed to the east and somehow gotten onto a separate equestrian path that bypassed us on our loop. Now we were converging again. 

Despite having walked this same trail earlier in the hike, the hills now felt steeper as the muscles in our tired legs quivered with each step. We decided to divert onto a hillside cow path and let the horse riders pass us, grateful to once again be left with the sounds of the birds and cows. 

By the time we reached the car again it was around 1:30 p.m. We’d been out nearly three and a half hours and conquered more than seven miles of tough terrain. We checked our shoes and pant legs for ticks, not expecting to find any but playing it safe anyway; nothing but a lot of dust to brush off. 

We’d worked up quite an appetite and had decided to head over to Streets of Brentwood for lunch at Red Robin. When Glenn texted Roni with the news, she asked us to bring her back a hamburger and a chocolate shake. Our waitress was very accommodating and made sure to get our to-go items out to us when we were ready to leave so they’d still be mostly fresh by the time they reached home. 

It was a great way to end a fun day, and as we went our separate ways from the restaurant we looked ahead to when we might next get together, possibly before Sean’s wedding in December. That seems so far off still, but time gets away from us as we’re all involved in our daily lives, and the holidays will be upon us before we can blink. Gotta enjoy times like these whenever we can.

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IMES WE HAVEN’T much enjoyed recently have mostly revolved around finances and the impact of inflation and interest rate hikes on the economy. If it was the Federal Reserve’s goal to drain liquidity from stock investments and savings accounts (it was) then they are succeeding in the ongoing war against inflation while bringing America closer to a recession. 

We’d expected a significant tax refund this year in light of the major losses we took in our taxable investment portfolio in 2022, or at least not to owe anything beyond what we had already contributed. What we didn’t expect was to receive a bill from the government for our health insurance, the subsidy for which the IRS says we weren’t entitled because our income was too high. 

That turned what might have been a decent refund into a barely break-even return that left us questioning how much money to withhold each quarter going forward, since we largely rely on estimated taxes nowadays to cover the burden to Uncle Sam. 

One thing we kind of knew already was that investment losses are limited by the amount of your gains up to $3,000 max, so although you may be able to carry over some of your losses to future tax years, you can’t deduct them all at once. That is both a good and bad thing, because it would have been great to deduct everything this year. But seeing as 2023 is already an improvement over the carnage that took place in the stock market in 2022, we might be able to benefit from delaying some of the writedown. 

We haven’t offered many updates here in recent months on the comings and goings in our portfolio, and that is because we’ve made only a few outright buys of new shares while trying to preserve cash as we are still in the midst of a bear market and the predominant trajectory for growth stocks has remained down for many weeks. That has hurt us especially in the taxable account, where we are on margin and continue to struggle with maintaining a minimum equity balance to avoid having to unload investments at fire sale prices to satisfy margin calls — what got us where we are now, largely because of failed option trades. 

To paraphrase noted investing champion Mark Minervini, who sagely remarked in one of his Twitter posts: In a bull market, you can do everything wrong and still make money; in a bear market, you can do everything right and still lose money. That is so painfully true. A few of our recent highlights (and lowlights): 

• We received hundreds of new shares of Columbia Bank (COLB) in March after it completed its takeover of Umpqua Bank, which we owned in both Glenn’s IRA and the taxable account. That was right before the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank and the takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS that sent shares of regional banks plunging on fears of a global financial crisis. COLB fell well below our cost basis, so we added 52 shares when it dropped to $24, then another 50 shares when it was close to $20 last week before a solid earnings report. 

• Virgin Orbit (VORBQ), Sir Richard Branson’s satellite launching company that went public in 2021, filed for bankruptcy and wiped out most of our small investment in it that was in our Roth IRA. It officially marked the first time one of our holdings was obliterated without notice, but it may not be the last… 

• We are now up to 5,200 shares of electric vehicle conglomerate Ideanomics (IDEX), which may be history by the time you read this; the company is scheduled to be delisted by the NASDAQ as soon as May 1 after its stock price cratered to 2.4 cents per share. We’ve lost more than $4,000 in the stock, which we started buying in 2021 when it was at $2 a share. Management has stubbornly refused a reverse-split while continuing to issue new shares to fund operations, the result being that existing shareholders continue to be diluted and the stock trades lower by the day. 

• Electric vehicle and clean energy companies may be the wave of the future, but they are all taking a serious hit in the current economy. Interest rate increases make the cost of borrowing more expensive, which is detrimental to businesses still in the early stages of their growth that must constantly find new sources of funding. Our investments in ChargePoint (CHPT), QuantumScape (QS), Hyliion (HYLN) and SunPower (SPWR) are all hovering close to 52-week lows. We are itching to buy more shares, but the odds are strong these stocks may fall further in the coming months, so we aren’t adding yet. 

• Option assignments forced us to purchase 100-share lots of several companies in the past two months — most of which we were immediately forced to sell at a loss to avoid hefty margin interest charges as we would be borrowing the funds to own them otherwise. Two exceptions were RingCentral (RNG), which we kept at $50 a share, and SunPower, 100 shares of which we kept for $26 a share after having to purchase 200 shares with the stock hovering around $13.40. We also had to buy 300 shares of Macy’s (M) and 100 shares of Apple Inc. (AAPL), all of which were jettisoned and reoptioned for November. Option strategies can be successful, but naked puts have been especially difficult in this market where the trend is lower. 

• We picked up 200 shares of Vroom (VRM) at 80 cents a share, increased our stake in Spire Global (SPIR) to 1,000 shares in the taxable account as it has continued to fall, and we started a position in Getty Images (GETY), which finally reached our buy zone below $4. We have also been making regular buys of dividend-paying fund PDI at the rate of 10-20 shares every month; it has been battered by interest rates. 

All our accounts combined are down about $142,000 from their peak in January 2022, most of that loss coming from the taxable account. That is still a vast improvement over mid-October, when the market was at its most recent bottom and we were down more than $250,000. So as awful as things have felt on some days, it is somewhat comforting to know we’ve been tracking the flow of the markets. The moral is to stay invested and add shares during the down times, because eventually the bulls will run again.

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ARD AS IT may be to believe, Glenn is marking four years at Local News Matters, the nonprofit website devoted to covering community news in the Bay Area and out to Stockton. LNM is the public-facing project of Bay City News Service, which is the source of much of the wire coverage picked up by television and radio stations in the region, as well as several newspapers that no longer have the budgets for full-time coverage of things they once reported on, including city council meetings, festivals and events, education and a number of social issues.

Bay City News, or BCN, has been around since 1979, but it looks a lot different these days in the era of internet, social media and cloud computing. It is now owned by Kat Rowlands, who started her career at BCN back in the 1980s and bought the company in 2018 with the goal to grow from simply reporting on breaking traffic, weather and crime to providing original features and investigative pieces produced by its core staff and interns from the local universities. 

LNM has always been something of a science experiment, a place where we get to play with new technologies and reporting projects to see what resonates with the public. The site has partnered with other local news sites to share their content, and recently has even run Spanish-language copy to reach an audience that most local media tend to overlook. 

On April 10, BCN held one of its periodic offsite retreats in San Francisco, which Glenn attended. It was a full day of training at the Microsoft conference center at 555 California St., along with brainstorming sessions on where to focus efforts in the coming months. Though almost all the staff work remotely, it was an opportunity for some face time with everyone. 

LNM is always looking for sponsors, which is how it pays the bills. It becomes increasingly important in a slow economy when finding nonprofit funding is difficult, so if you know of some large venture capitalist with a few million dollars to spare, give Kat a call. 

Well, that will do it for April. It’s off to the store for some last-minute gifts as we prepare to celebrate Ben’s birthday in a few more days. Until next month…

 

Glenn, Roni and Ben